Climate Change
What global warming is not
Let’s start by clearing something up. The term “global warming” can be confusing. It suggests to some people that we can expect warmer temperatures here in Walla Walla (which doesn’t sound so bad — longer tomato growing season, anyone?). This incorrect understanding has led a few people to write in the Union-Bulletin’s letter to the editor page in frustration. How can people really take global warming seriously when this past winter was longer and had more snow than any other in recent memory? But that’s not at all what the science predicts, so let’s put that notion to bed.
The term simply refers to rising global average air temperatures near the Earth’s surface. That means temperatures overall, even though the weather may be quite cooler in some places, so our local weather can’t tell us much about the global climate. Paradoxically, the temperature in higher parts of the atmosphere may even simultaneously drop. And, we’re talking about very little increase in surface temperature — less than 2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Yet that less than 2 degree increase does add up to a big impact, at least on a global scale. Again, there is no way to reliably predict weather patterns for Walla Walla or any other specific region, but on a global scale, scientists do predict a rising sea level, more intense extreme weather events, and changes to precipitation patterns, agricultural yields, trade routes, glacier retreat, species extinctions, and a greater range for diseases to spread... In short, a changing climate. That’s why you’ll see us using the term “climate change”.
Potential consequences for the Walla Walla Valley
Once again, we cannot know for certain what climate change will look like in our region, but here are a few possible consequences.
- Snowpack may decrease, causing faster runoff and less water in the summer
- New weeds and crop diseases could migrate if our climate becomes more suitable for them
- Our cooling and heating bills could increase due to more extreme weather in the summer (air conditioning) and winter (heating)
- Wine grapes may not do as well if the climate changes
- Extreme weather events, which are likely to intensify and occur more frequently, threaten our health and well-being
- Climate changes could increase fire danger, and decrease productivity of our forests
The problem, and the solution
Certain gasses in our atmosphere trap heat from the sun, preventing it from escaping back out into space. You’ve heard of this before — we’re talking about greenhouse gasses. Carbon dioxide, a.k.a. C02, is a prominent greenhouse gas that just happens to be one of the bi-products of burning fossil fuels. The consensus view in the scientific community is that the atmospheric warming we began to observe in the middle of the 20th century is due primarily to all of the C02 emitted by industrial societies for decades accumulating in the atmosphere, intensifying the greenhouse effect.
The IPCC
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of the United Nations, reports that based on peer reviewed scientific literature, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas concentrations."
We’re going to focus mostly on carbon emitted by burning fossil fuels, because that is probably where we in Walla Walla can make the biggest difference. There are some other causes worth noting, though, before we move on. One of these is clearing forests, which emits carbon by burning trees and giving up the carbon in nutrient-rich soil. Another related source of emissions is the loss of soil due to agriculture. Other greenhouse gasses come from belching volcanoes, livestock feces, and drained wetlands. Fluctuations in the energy coming to us from the sun also directly relates to warming.
What about our energy needs?
Great question. We believe we can make do without new fossil fuel-burning power plants. That may not be the easiest path, but we must — and can — take it. And, it may be easier than it first seems. More on this topic coming soon.
The solution is pretty straightforward: reduce carbon emissions. It is hard to say how much reduction is needed or how quickly it will make a difference, but it is clear that our extensive use of fossil fuel is hurting, not helping. It is also clear that action is needed from a combination of individuals, businesses, organizations, and government to make a significant difference.
Solutions must be local
All of that carbon in the atmosphere is coming from cars, power plants, homes, farms, and new development all over the world. It is a truly global problem, and there are international initiatives at work to find solutions. And yet, every ounce of carbon dioxide emitted is coming from one of thousands of individual communities. We’re all responsible in our own small way, and all can provide a piece of the solution. In fact, in the United States, cities are providing most of the leadership. There are a growing number of initiatives from cities in the Northwest that we can look to for examples of what is possible in the Walla Walla Valley.The Spokane Climate Change / Peak Oil Initiative is just getting started, and has a blog.
We should must cut back
So here is an amazing (and rather difficult) coincidence. On the one hand we face the realization that we ought to cut down on fossil fuels use to stave off climate change and its grim consequences. On the other hand, we face peaking fossil fuel production and the possibility that within our lifetimes, maybe even within the next decade, we will need to get along without oil and natural gas. The two problems are bound up together, and both problems urge us to make some big changes. But if climate change by itself only suggests that we cut back on fossil fuels, peak oil practically requires it.
Next: Sustainability —>
or, jump to What we can do —>
